### The omnibus F-test may be ignored if you use multiple comparison procedures

I think  trying to be scientific with a small s involves asking critical questions about  common wisdom or common practice. In this post, I would like to focus on multiple comparisons in the context of ANOVA. What does common practice indicate?

## Common wisdom suggests doing multiple comparisons only if the F-test is significant

Let’s have a look on some practical advice considering multiple comparisons found on the web (R-bloggers.com) and in Field (2015).

“One way to begin an ANOVA is to run a general omnibus test. The advantage to starting here is that if the omnibus test comes up insignificant, you can stop your analysis and deem all pairwise comparisons insignificant. If the omnibus test is significant, you should continue with pairwise comparisons” (https://www.r-bloggers.com/r-tutorial-series-one-way-anova-with-pairwise-comparisons/)

“When we have a statistically significant effect in ANOVA and an independent variable of more than two levels, we typically want to make follow-up comparisons. There are numerous methods for making pairwise comparisons and this tutorial will demonstrate how to execute several different techniques in R.” (https://www.r-bloggers.com/r-tutorial-series-anova-pairwise-comparison-methods/)
And have a look at how the text book I used to use in my statistics course explains it.

“It might seem a bit unhelpful that an ANOVA doesn’t tell you which groups are different from which, given that having gone to the trouble of running an experiment, you probably need to know more than ‘there’s some difference somewhere or other’. You might wonder, therefore, why we don’t just carry out a lot of t-tests, which would tell us very specifically whether pairs of group means differ. Actually, the reason has already been explained in Section 2.1.6.7: every time you run multiple tests on the same data you inflate the potential Type I errors that you make. However, we’ll return to this point in Section 11.5 when we look at how we follow up an ANOVA to discover where the group difference lie.” (Field, 2015, p. 442).
Although, in honesty, on p. 459 Field writes:

“The least significance difference (LSD) pairwise comparison makes no attempt to control Type I error and is equivalent to performing multiple t-tests on the data. The only difference is that LSD requires the overall ANOVA to be significant.”

This is meant to inform about the relative merits of one post hoc procedure to another in terms of Type I and Type II error.  Crucially, it is not mentioned that the other post-hoc procedures require that the overall ANOVA be significant. (As common wisdom seems to suggest). However,  his flow-chart of the ANOVA procedure (p. 460) clearly suggests multiple comparison procedures should be used as post-hoc procedures (after the ANOVA is significant).

Thus, common “statistical” wisdom seem to suggest that multiple comparison procedures are to be used as post hoc procedures following up a significant omnibus F-test. And the reason is that this two-stepped procedure minimizes the probability of type I errors.

Now, let’s ask ourselves whether this common sense is, well, sensible.

## Multiple comparisons only after significant F-test affects power negatively

Wilcox (2017) contains some useful information regarding our question. In his discussion of the much used Tukey-HSD procedure (the Tukey-Kramer Method), he references Bernhardson, (1975) who shows that the probability of at least 1 type I error among pairwise comparisons of estimates of equal population means (i.e. true null-hypotheses) is no longer equal to if the procedure is only carried out following a significant omnibus test. That is, if we use our beloved two step procedure.

The consequence of the two step procedure for the Tukey-HSD is that is reduced. Thus, if we want our multiple comparisons procedure to generate one type I error or more at most with a probability of  , using the 2 step procedure leads to a lowered . This is of course, bad news, because in the event that not all of the null-hypotheses are true, lowering increases , the probability of not rejecting when the null-hypothesis is false (keeping the sample size constant, of course). In other words, the two step procedure decreases the power of the multiple comparison procedure.

In the words of Wilcox (2017):

“In practical terms, when it comes to controlling the probability of at least one type I error, there is no need to first reject with the ANOVA F test to justify using the Tukey-Kramer method. If the Tukey-Kramer method is used only after the F test rejects, power can be reduced. Currently, however, common practice is to use the Tukey-Kramer method only if the F-test rejects. That is, the insight reported by Bernhardson is not yet well known.”  (p. 385).

In conceptual terms,  the fact that the probability of at least one type I error in the multiple comparison procedure is  smaller than if the F-test rejects is pretty clear, at least to me it is. Suppose we reject if the p-value of the F-test is smaller or equal to 5%. This will also be the probability that we conduct the multiple comparison test over repeated replications of the same experiment. Of that 5%, not every application of the procedure will result in at least one type I error. Indeed, a puzzling fact for many beginning researchers is that the F-test is significant while none of the pairwise comparisons is. In other words, some of those 5%  of the cases in which we perform the procedure following a significant F-test will probably not reject any of the pairwise null-hypotheses, unless it is guaranteed that at least one type I error per application will be made.

(With no adjustment of for multiple comparisons, this will happen (with high probability so no guarantee) if a huge number of pairwise comparisons are made. For instance, with 99 unadjusted multiple comparisons the probability of at least one type I error is 99%.; this is why it makes sense to demand that the F-test is significant before testing multiple comparisons with the LSD procedure. Although the latter seems to run into trouble with more than 3 groups (Wilcox, 2017).

## A quick simulation study

My hunch is that the two-step procedure is unnecessary for the Tukey-Kramer method as well as for other multiple comparison procedures (the exception Fisher’s LSD procedure which was designed as a post hoc procedure to be used as a follow up after a significant F-test, as Field (2015) rightly points out), but I only focused on the Tukey-Kramer method. What I did was a simple simulation study with a four group between subjects design (all ‘s equal) and estimated the probability of at least type I error both with and without using the 2 step procedure.

set.seed(456)
#number of groups
ngr = 4

#number of participants
n = 40

#group is a factor
gr <- factor(rep(1:ngr, each=n))

#vector for storing rejections F-test
Reject <- rep(0, 10000)

#vector for storing #rejections multiple
#comparisons
RejectHSD <- rep(0, 10000)

for (i in 1:10000) {

y = rnorm(ngr*n)
mod = aov(y ~ gr)
Reject[i] = anova(mod)$"Pr(>F)"[1] <= .05 PS <- TukeyHSD(mod)$gr[,4]
RejectHSD[i] = sum(PS <=.05)
}

#probability type I error F-test
sum(Reject)/length(Reject)

## [1] 0.0515

#probability at least one type I error Tukey HSD
sum(RejectHSD > 0) / length(RejectHSD)

## [1] 0.0503

#probability at least one type I error given F-tests Rejects
sum(RejectHSD[Reject==TRUE] > 0) / length(RejectHSD)

## [1] 0.0424


Even though a single (relatively tiny) simulation (which, by the way, takes a long time to run, nonetheless), is not necessarily convincing, it does  illustrate the main points of this post. First, the probability of at least one incorrect rejection using the TukeyHSD function is close to .05. With this particular random seed it even performs a little better than the ANOVA F-test: .0503 versus .0515. This illustrates that even without considering whether the omnibus test is significant the main demand of not rejecting too many true null-hypotheses is completely satisfied. So, in practical terms, you can safely ignore the omnibus test if your concerns are about  .

Second, the probability of incorrectly rejecting at least one true pair-wise null-hypothesis after the ANOVA F-test is significant is estimated to be .0424. This shows, that the two-step procedure leads to a larger decrease in the actual type I error probability than is wanted. Even though this may seem good news from the perspective of avoiding type I errors, the down side is that pair wise null-hypotheses that are false (and potentially important) may not be detected.

## Conclusion

Common wisdom and practice suggest that multiple comparisons procedures should be done only after a significant omnibus test. We have seen that this is not at all necessary if we use a multiple comparisons procedure that is designed to control the type I error probability. To my knowledge, most of the procedures conventionally thought of as post hoc tests are designed in this manner, the exception being the LSD procedure which does require a significant F-test. For practical purposes, then, do not bother with the omnibus test (note the exception) if you are planning to pair wise compare all the treatment means.
This practical advice does not mean, of course, that I am suggesting you spend your time comparing all treatment means. Most of the time, focused comparisons are a more fruitful way of analysing your data. But I’ll leave that topic for another time.

### References

Field, A. (2013). Discovering Statistics Using IBM SPSS Statistics. 4th Edition. London: Sage.
Wilcox, R. (2017). Understanding and Applying Basic Statistical Methods Using R. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley,

### Planning for a precise slope estimate in simple regression

In this post, I will show you a way of determining a sample size for obtaining a precise estimate of the slope of the simple linear regression equation . The basic ingredients we need for sample size planning are a measure of the precision, a way to determine the quantiles of the sampling distribution of our measure of precision, and a way to calculate sample sizes.

As our measure of precision we choose the Margin of Error (MOE), which is the half-width of the 95% confidence interval of our estimate (see: Cumming, 2012; Cumming & Calin-Jageman, 2017; see also www.thenewstatistics.com).

### The distribution of the margin of error of the regression slope

In the case of simple linear regression, assuming normality and homogeneity of variance, MOE is , where , is the .975 quantile of the central t-distribution with degrees of freedom, and is the standard error of the estimate of .
An expression of the squared standard error of the estimate of is (Wilcox, 2017): the variance of Y given X divided by the sum of squared errors of X. The variance equals , the variance of Y multiplied by 1 minus the squared population correlation between Y and X, and it is estimated with the residual variance , where .
The estimated squared standard error is given in (1)

(1)

With respect to the sampling distribution of MOE, we first note the following. The distribution of estimates of the residual variance in the numerator of (1) is a scaled -distribution:

thus

Second, we note that

where , therefore

Alternatively, since , and multiplying by 1 ().

In terms of the sampling distribution of (1), then, we have the ratio of two (scaled) distributions, one with degrees of freedom, and one with degrees of freedom. Or something like:

which means that the sampling distribution of MOE is:

(2)

This last equation, that is (2), can be used to obtain quantiles of the sampling distribution of MOE, which enables us to determine assurance MOE, that is the value of MOE that under repeated sampling will not exceed a target value with a given probability. For instance, if we want to know the .80 quantile of estimates of MOE, that is, assurance is .80, we determine the .80 quantile of the (central) F-distribution with N – 2 and N – 1 degrees of freedom and fill in (2) to obtain a value of MOE that will not be exceeded in 80% of replication experiments.
For instance, suppose , , , , and assurance is .80, then according to (2), 80% of estimated MOEs will not exceed the value given by:
vary = 1
varx = 1
rho = .5
N = 100
dfe = N - 2
dfx - N - 1
assu = .80
t = qt(.975, dfe)
MOE.80 = t*sqrt(vary*(1 - rho^2)*qf(.80, dfe, dfx)/(dfx*varx))
MOE.80

## [1] 0.1880535


### What does a quick simulation study tell us?

A quick simulation study may be used to check whether this is at all accurate. And, yes, the estimated quantile from the simulation study is pretty close to what we would expect based on (2). If you run the code below, the estimate equals 0.1878628.
library(MASS)
set.seed(355)
m = c(0, 0)

# note: s below is the variance-covariance matrix. In this case,
# rho and the cov(y, x) have the same values
# otherwise: rho = cov(x, y)/sqrt(varY*VarX) (to be used in the
# functions that calculate MOE)
# equivalently, cov(x, y) = rho*sqrt(varY*varX) (to be used
# in the specification of the variance-covariance matrix for
#generating bivariate normal variates)

s = matrix(c(1, .5, .5, 1), 2, 2)
se <- rep(10000, 0)
for (i in 1:10000) {
theData <- mvrnorm(100, m, s)
mod <- lm(theData[,1] ~ theData[,2])
se[i] <- summary(mod)$coefficients[4] } MOE = qt(.975, 98)*se quantile(MOE, .80)  ## 80% ## 0.1878628  ### Planning for precision If we want to plan for precision we can do the following. We start by making a function that calculates the assurance quantile of the sampling distribution of MOE described in (2). Then we formulate a squared cost function, which we will optimize for the sample sizeusing the optimize function in R. Suppose we want to plan for a target MOE of .10 with 80% assurance.We may do the following. vary = 1 varx = 1 rho = .5 assu = .80 tMOE = .10 MOE.assu = function(n, vary, varx, rho, assu) { varY.X = vary*(1 - rho^2) dfe = n - 2 dfx = n - 1 t = qt(.975, dfe) q.assu = qf(assu, dfe, dfx) MOE = t*sqrt(varY.X*q.assu/(dfx * varx)) return(MOE) } cost = function(x, tMOE) { cost = (MOE.assu(x, vary=vary, varx=varx, rho=rho, assu=assu) - tMOE)^2 } #note samplesize is at least 40, at most 5000. #note that since we already know that N = 100 is not enough #in stead of 40 we might just as well set N = 100 at the lower #limit of the interval (samplesize = ceiling(optimize(cost, interval=c(40, 5000), tMOE = tMOE)$minimum))

## [1] 321

#check the result:
MOE.assu(samplesize, vary, varx, rho, assu)

## [1] 0.09984381


### Let’s simulate with the proposed sample size

Let’s check it with a simulation study. The value of estimated .80 of estimates of MOE is 0.1007269 (if you run the below code with random seed 335), which is pretty close to what we would expect based on (2).
set.seed(355)
m = c(0, 0)

# note: s below is the variance-covariance matrix. In this case,
# rho and the cov(y, x) have the same values
# otherwise: rho = cov(x, y)/sqrt(varY*VarX) (to be used in the
# functions that calculate MOE)
# equivalently, cov(x, y) = rho*sqrt(varY*varX) (to be used
# in the specification of the variance-covariance matrix for
# generating bivariate normal variates)

s = matrix(c(1, .5, .5, 1), 2, 2)
se <- rep(10000, 0)
samplesize = 321
for (i in 1:10000) {
theData <- mvrnorm(samplesize, m, s)
mod <- lm(theData[,1] ~ theData[,2])
## [1] 246.4563
##
## [1] 255.576
##
## $objective ## [1] 2.900716e-18  Thus, according to the results, we need 256 persons per group (N = 1024 in total) to have a 80% probability of obtaining a MOE not larger than our target MOE. In that case, our expected MOE will be 0.4472. ### Planning for Precision: A confidence interval for the contrast estimate In a previous post, which can be found here, I described how the relative error variance of a treatment mean can be obtained by combining variance components. I concluded that post by mentioning how this relative error variance for the treatment mean can be used to obtain the variance of a contrast estimate. In this post, I will discuss a little more how this latter variance can be used to obtain a confidence interval for the contrast estimate, but we take a few steps back and consider a relatively simple study. The plan of this post is as follows. We will have a look at the analysis of a factorial design and focus on estimating an interaction effect. We will consider both the NHST approach and an estimation approach. We will use both ‘hand calculations’ and SPSS. An important didactic aspect of this post is to show the connection between the ANOVA source table and estimates of the standard error of a contrast estimate. Understanding that connections helps in understanding one of my planned posts on how obtaining these estimates work in the case of mixed model ANOVA. See the final section of this post. The data we will be analyzing are made up. They were specifically designed for an exam in one of the undergraduate courses I teach. The story behind the data is as follows. ### Description of the study A researcher investigates the extent to which the presence of seductive details in a text influences text comprehension and motivation to read the text. Seductive details are pieces of information in a text that are included to make the text more interesting (for instance by supplying fun-facts about the topic of the text) in order to increase the motivation of the reader to read on in the text. These details are not part of the main points in the text. The motivation to read on may lead to increased understanding of the main points in the text. However, readers with much prior knowledge about the text topic may not profit as much as readers with little prior knowledge with respect to their understanding of the text, simply because their prior knowledge enables them to comprehend the text to an acceptable degree even without the presence of seductive details. The experiment has two independent factors, the readers’ prior knowledge (1 = Little, 2 = Much) and the presence of seductive details (1 = Absent, 2 = Present) and two dependent variables, Text comprehension and Motivation. The experiment has a between participants design (i.e. participant nested within condition). The research question is how much the effect of seductive details differs between readers with much and readers with little prior knowledge. This means that we are interested in estimating the interaction effect of presence of seductive details and prior knowledge on text comprehension. ### The NHST approach In order to appreciate the different analytical focus between traditional NHST (as practiced) and an estimation approach, we will first take a look at the NHST approach to the analysis. It may be expected that researchers using that approach perform an ANOVA ritual as a means of answering the research question. Their focus will be on the statistical significance of the interaction effect, and if that interaction is significant the effect of seductive details will be investigated separately for participants with little and participants with much prior knowledge. The latter analysis focuses on whether these simple effects are significant or not. If the interaction effect is not significant, it will be concluded that there is no interaction effect. Of course, besides the interaction effect, the researcher performing the ANOVA ritual will also report the significance of the main effects and will conclude that main effects exist or not exist depending on whether they are significant or not. The more sophisticated version of NHST will also include an effect size estimate (if the corresponding significance test is significant) that is interpreted using rules of thumb. The two way ANOVA output (including partial eta squared) is as follows.  Table 1. Output of traditional two-way ANOVA The results of the analysis will probably be reported as follows. There was a significant main effect of prior knowledge (F(1, 393) = 39.26, p < .001, partial η2 = .09). Participants with much prior knowledge had a higher mean text comprehension score than the participants with little prior knowledge. There was no effect of the presence of seductive details (F < 1). The interaction effect was significant (F(1, 393) = 4.33, p < .05, partial η= .01). Because of the significant interaction effect, simple effects analyses were performed to further investigate the interaction. These results show a significant effect of the presence of seductive details for the participants with little knowledge (p < .05), with a higher mean score in the condition with seductive details, but for the participants with much prior knowledge no effect of seductive details was found (p = .38), which explains the interaction. (Note: with a Bonferroni correction for the two simple effects analyses the p-values are p = .08 and p = .74; this will be interpreted as that neither readers with little knowledge nor with much knowledge benefit from the presence of seductive details). The conclusion from the traditional analysis is that the effect of seductive details differs between readers with little and readers with much prior knowledge. The presence of seductive details only has an effect on the comprehension scores of readers with little prior knowledge of the text topic, in the presence of seductive details text comprehension is higher than in the absence of seductive details. Readers with much prior knowledge do not benefit from the presence of seductive details in a text. #### Comment on the NHST analysis The first thing to note is that the NHST conclusion does not really answer the research question. Whereas the research question ask how much the effects differ, the answer to the research question is that a difference exists. This answer is further specified as that there exists an effect in the little knowledge group, but that there is no effect in the much knowledge group. The second thing to note is that although there is a simple research questions, the report of the results includes five significance tests, while none of them actually address the research question. (Remember it is an how-much question and not a whether-question, the significance tests do not give useful information about the how-much question). The third thing to notice is that although effect sizes estimates are included (for the significant effects only) they are not interpreted while drawing conclusions. Sometimes you will encounter such interpretations, but usually they have no impact on the answer to the research question. That is, the researcher may include in the report that there is a small interaction effect (using rules-of-thumb for the interpretation of partial eta-squared; .01 = small; .06 = medium, .14 = large), but the smallness of the interaction effect does not play a role in the conclusion (which simply reformulates the (non)significance of the results without mentioning numbers; i.e. that the effect exists (or was found) in one group but not in the other). As an aside, the null-hypothesis test for the effect of prior knowledge i.e. that the mean comprehension score of readers with little knowledge are equal to the mean comprehension score of readers with much prior knowledge about the text topic seems to me an excellent example of a null-hypothesis that is so implausible that rejecting it is not really informative. Even if used as some sort of manipulation check the real question is the extent to which the groups differ and not whether the difference is exactly zero. That is to say, not every non-zero difference is as reassuring as every other non-zero difference: there should be an amount of difference between the groups below which the group performances can be considered to be practically the same. If a significance tests is used at all, the null-hypothesis should specify that minimum amount of difference. ### Estimating the interaction effect We will now work towards estimating the interaction effect. We will do that in a number of steps. First, we will estimate the value of the contrasts on the basis of the estimated marginal means provided by the two-way ANOVA and show how the confidence interval of that estimate can be obtained. Second, we will use SPSS to obtain the contrast estimate. Table 2 contains the descriptives and samples sizes for the groups and the estimated marginal means are presented in Table 3.  Table 2. Descriptive Statistics  Table 3. Estimated Marginal Means Let’s spend a little time exploring the contents of Table 3. The estimated means speak for themselves, hopefully. These are simply estimates of the population means. The standard errors following the means are used to calculate confidence intervals for the population means. The standard error is based on an estimate of the common population variance (the ANOVA model assumes homogeneity of variance and normally distributed residuals). That estimate of the common variance can be found in Table 1: it is the Mean Square Error. Its estimated value is 3.32, based on 389 degrees of freedom. The standard errors of the means in Table 3 are simply the square root of the Mean Square Error dvided by the sample size. E.g. the standard error of the mean text comprehension in the group with little knowledge and seductive details absent equals √(3.32/94) = .1879. The Margin of Error needed to obtain the confidence interval is the critical t-value with 389 degrees of freedom (the df of the estimate of Mean Square Error) multiplied by the standard error of the mean. E.g. the MOE of the first mean is t.975(389)*.1879 = 1.966*.1879 = 0.3694. The 95%-confidence interval for the first mean is therefore 3.67 +/- 0.3694 = [3.30, 4.04]. #### Contrast estimate We want to know the extent to which the effect of seductive details differs between readers with little and much prior knowledge. This means that we want to know the difference between the differences. Thus, the difference between the means of the Present (P) and Absent (A) of readers with Much (M) knowledge is subtracted from the difference between the means of the readers with Little (L) knowledge: (ML+P – ML+A) – (MM+P – MM+A) = ML+P – ML+A – MM+P + MM+A = 4.210 – 3.670 – 4.980 + 5.206 = 0.766. Our point estimate of the difference between the effect of seductive details for little knowledge readers and for much knowledge is that the effect is 0.77 points larger in the group with little knowledge. For the interval estimate we need the estimated standard error of the contrast estimate and a critical value for the central t-statistic. To begin with the latter: the degrees of freedom are the degrees of freedom used to estimate Mean Square Error (df = 389; see Table 1). The standard error of the contrasts estimate can be obtained by using the variance sum law. That is, the variance of the sum of two variables is the sum of their variances plus twice the covariance. And the variance of the difference between two variables is the sum of the variances minus twice the covariance. In the independent design, all the covariances between the means are zero, so the variance of the interaction contrast is simply the sum of the variances over the means. The standard error is the square root of this figure. Thus, var(interaction contrast) = 0.1882 + 0.1822 + 0.1852 + 0.1812 = 0.1354, and the standard error of the contrast is the square root of 0.1354 = .3680. Note that the we have squared the standard errors of the mean. These squared standard error are the same as the relative error variances of the means. (Actually, in a participant nested under treatment condition (a between-subject design) the relative error variance of the mean equals the absolute error variance). More information about the error variance of the mean can be found here: https://the-small-s-scientist.blogspot.nl/2017/05/PFP-variance-components.html. The Margin of Error of the contrast estimate is therefore t.975(389)*.3680 = 1.966*.3680 = 0.7235. The 95% confidence interval for the contrast estimate is [0.04, 1.49]. Thus, the answer to the research question is that the estimated difference in effect of seductive details between readers with little prior knowledge and readers with much prior knowledge about the text topic equals .77, 95% CI [.04, 1.49]. The 95% confidence interval shows that the estimate is very imprecise, since the limits of the interval are .04, which suggests that the effect of seductive details is essentially similar for the different groups of readers, and 1.49, which shows that the effect of seductive details may be much larger for little knowledge readers than for much knowledge readers. #### Analysis with SPSS I think it is easiest to obtain the contrast estimate by modeling the data with one-way ANOVA by including a factor I’ve called ‘independent’. (Note: In this simple case, the parameter estimates output of the independent factorial ANOVA also gives the interaction contrast (including the 95% confidence interval), so there is no actual need to specify contrasts, but I like to have the flexibility of being able to get an estimate that directly expresses what I want to know). This factor has 4 levels: one for each of the combinations of the factors prior knowledge and presence of seductive details: Little-Absent (LA), Little-Present (LP), Much-Absent (MA), and Much-Present (MP). The interaction we’re after is the difference between the mean difference between Present and Absent for participants with little knowledge (MLP – MLA) and the mean difference between Present and Absent in the much knowledge group (MMP – MMA). Thus, the estimate of the interaction (difference between differences) is (MLP – MLA) – (MMP – MMA) = MLP – MLA – MMP + MMA. This can be rewritten as 1*MLP + -1*MLA + -1*MMP + 1*MMA). The 1’s and -1’s are of course the contrast weights we have to specify in SPSS in order to get the estimate we want. We will have to make sure that the weights correspond to the way in which the order of the means is represented internally in SPSS. That order is LA, LP, MA, MP. Thus, the contrast weights need to be specified in that order to get the estimate to express what we want in terms of the difference between differences. See the second line in the following SPSS-syntax. UNIANOVA comprehension BY independent /CONTRAST(independent)=SPECIAL ( -1 1 1 -1) /METHOD=SSTYPE(3) /INTERCEPT=INCLUDE /EMMEANS=TABLES(independent) /PRINT=DESCRIPTIVE /CRITERIA=ALPHA(.05) /DESIGN=independent. The relevant output is presented in Table 4. Note that the results are the same as the ‘hand calculations’ described above (I find this very satisfying).  Table 4. Interaction contrast estimate #### Comment on the analysis First note that the answer to the research question has been obtained with a single analysis. The analysis gives us a point estimate of the difference between the differences and a 95% confidence interval. The analysis is to the point to the extent that it gives the quantitative information we seek. However, although the estimate of the difference between the differences is all the quantitative information we need to answer the how-much-research question, the estimate itself obscures the pattern in the results, in the sense that the estimate itself does not tell us what may be important for theoretical or practical reasons, namely the direction of the effect. That is, a positive interaction contrast may indicate the difference between an estimated positive effect for one group and an estimated negative effect in the other group (which is actually the situation in the present example: 0.54 – (-0.23) = 0.77) in the other group). Of course, we could argue that if you want to know the extent to which the size and direction differ between the groups, then that should be reflected in your research question, for instance, by asking about and estimating the simple effects themselves in stead of focusing on the size of the difference alone, as we have done here. On the other hand, we could argue that no result of a statistical analysis should be interpreted in isolation. Thus, there is no problem with interpreting the estimate of 0.77 while referring to the simple effects: the estimated difference between the effects is .77, 95% CI [.04, 1.49], reflecting the difference between an estimated effect of 0.54 in the little knowledge group and an estimated negative effect of -0.23 for much knowledge readers. But, if the research question is how large is the effect of seductive details for little knowledge readers and high knowledge readers and how much do the effect differ, than that would call for three point estimates and interval estimates. Like: the estimated effect for the little knowledge group equals 0.54. 95% CI [0.03, 1.06], whereas the estimated effect for the much knowledge groups is negative -0.23, 95% CI [-0.73, 0.28]. The difference in effect is therefore 0.77, 95% CI [.04, 1.49]. In all cases, of course, the intervals are so wide that no firm conclusions can be drawn. Consistent with the point estimates are negligibly small positive effects to large positive effects of seductive details for the little knowledge group, small positive effects to negative effects of seductive details for the much knowledge group and an interaction effect that ranges from negligibly small to very large. In other words, the picture is not at all clear. (Interpretations of the effect sizes are based on rules of thumb for Cohen’s d. A (biased) estimate of Cohen’s d can be obtained by dividing the point estimate by the square root of Mean Square Error. An approximate confidence interval can be obtained by dividing the end-points of the non-standardized confidence intervals by the square root of Mean Square Error). Of course, we have to keep in mind that 5% of the 95% confidence intervals do not contain the true value of the parameter or contrast we are estimating. Compare this to the firm (but unwarranted) NHST conclusion that there is a positive effect of seductive details for little knowledge readers (we don’t know whether there is a positive effect, because we can make a type I error if we reject the null) and no effect for much knowledge readers. (Yes, I know that the NHST thought-police forbids interpreting non-significant results as “no effect”, but we are talking about NHST as practiced and empirical research shows that researchers interpret non-significance as no effect). In any case, the wide confidence intervals show that we could do some work for a replication study in terms of optimizing the precision of our estimates. In a next post, I will show you how we can use our estimate of precision for planning that replication study. ### Summary of the procedure In (one of the next) posts, I will show that in the case of mixed models ANOVA’s we frequently need to estimate the degrees of freedom in order to be able to obtain MOE for a contrast. But the basic logic remains the same as what we have done in estimating the confidence interval for the interaction contrast. Please keep in mind the following. Looking at the ANOVA source table and the traditional ANOVA approach we notice that the interaction effect is tested against Mean Square Error: the F-ratio we use to test the null-hypothesis that both Mean Squares (the interaction MS an Mean Square Error) estimate the common error variance. The F-ratio is formed by dividing the Mean Square associated with the interaction by Mean Square Error. The probability distribution of that ratio is an F-distribution with 1 (numerator) and 389 (denominator) degrees of freedom. Mean Square Error is also used to obtain the estimated standard error for the interaction contrast estimate. In the calculation of MOE, the critical value of t was determined on the basis of the degrees of freedom of Mean Square Error. This is the case in general: the standard error of a contrast is based on the Mean Square Error that is also used to test the corresponding Effect (main or interaction) in an F-test. In a simple two-way ANOVA the same Mean Square Error is used to test all the effects (main an interaction), but that is not generally the case for more complex designs. Also, the degrees of freedom used to obtain a critical t-value for the calculation of MOE are the degrees of freedom of the Mean Square Error used to test an effect. In the case of a mixed model ANOVA, it is often the case that there is no Mean Square Error available to directly test an effect. The consequence of this is that we work with linear combinations of Mean Squares to obtain a suitable Mean Square Error for an effect and that we need to estimate the degrees of freedom. But the general logic is the same: the Mean Square Error that is obtained by a linear combination of Mean Squares is also used to obtain the standard error for the contrast estimate and the estimated degrees of freedom are the degrees of freedom used to obtain a critical value for t in the calculation of the Margin of Error. I will try to write about all of that soon. ### The new statistics: a five-day course Last week, I taught a 5-day-course for the LOT (Landelijke Onderzoeksschool Taalwetenschap; Netherlands National Graduate School of Linguistics; www.lotschool.nl) introducing the new statistics to PhD-students working in linguistics and related fields of research. Links to the course materials can be found in this post (apologies for the many typos). The day-to-day program was as follows. 1. Important concepts underlying statistics, like population paremeters, sampling, sanpling distribution, standard error and the margin of error. The primary means of developing these concepts was working with ESCI (www.tiny.cc/itns). The lab assignments are primarily based on Cumming and Calin-Jageman’s (2017) “Introduction to the new statistics”. The lab-assignments can be found here: www.tiny.cc/newstats. A pdf-version of the presentation can be found here: http://tiny.cc/newstats-presentation 2. Continuation of day 1. For students that finished the first assignment and to accommodate differences in backgrounds, new lab assignments focusing on statistical assumptions underlying the crucial concepts. Some of these assignments are based on Cumming and Calin-Jageman (2017) and ESCI, others work with R. The lab-assignments can be found here: www.tiny.cc/newstatsla2 3. Lecture only. In the lecture we reviewed the basic concepts discovered in the first two days. The concept of a confidence interval was introduced and the p-value. Furthermore, we discussed NHST by considering (at a procedural level and not so much on a statistical/philosophical level) how the procedure relates to its foundations: Fisher’s significance testing and Neyman and Pearson Hypothesis Testing. We basically saw that NHST is inconsistent with both of these foundations. We also discussed misinterpretations of p-values. The presentation can be found here: www.tiny.cc/newstatsday3. I also made available the lecture notes: www.tiny.cc/newstatsday3ln. 4. Lecture only. This day was about effect sizes. We considered the unstandardized difference between means, Cohen’s d, and the case level effect size measures Cohen’s U3 and the Common Language Effectsize. The powerpoint presentation is at www.tiny.cc/newstatsday4. 5. On the last day the students worked on new lab assignments focusing on interpretations of significance, the use of p-values and effect sizes in published work and working with effect size measures based on SPSS ANOVA output. These assignments can be found here: www.tiny.cc/newstatsday5. ### Planning for Precision: Introduction to variance components Both theory underlying the Precision application and the use of the app in practice rely for a large part on specifying variance components. In this post, I will give you some more details about what these components are, and how they relate to the analysis of variance model underlying the app. ### What is variance? Let’s start with a relatively simple conceptual explanation of variance. The key ideas are expected value and error. Suppose you randomly select a single score from a population of possible values. Let’s suppose furthermore that the population of values can be described with a normal distribution. There is actually no need to suppose a normal distribution, but it makes the explanation relatively easy to follow. As you probably know, the normal distribution is centered around its mean value, which is (equal to) the parameter μ. We call this parameter the population mean. Now, we select a single random value from the population. Let’s call this value X. Because we know something about the probability distribution of the population values, we are also in the position to specify an expected value for the score X. Let’s use the symbol E(X) for this expected value. The value of E(X) proves (and can be proven) to be equal to the parameter μ. (Conceptually, the expectation of a variable can be considered as its long run average). Of course, the actual value obtained will in general not be equal to the expected value, at least not if we sample from continuous distributions like the normal distribution. Let’s call the difference between the value X and it’s expectation E(X) = μ. an error, deviation or residual: e = X – E(X) = X – μ. We would like to have some indication of the extent to which X differs from its expectation, especially when E(X) is estimated on the basis of a statistical model. Thus, we would like to have something like E(X – E(X)) = E(X – μ). The variance gives us such an indication, but does so in squared units, because working with the expected error itself always leads to the value 0 E(X – μ) = E(X) – E( μ) = μ – μ = 0. (This simply says that on average the error is zero; the standard explanation is that negative and positive errors cancel out in the long run). The variance is the expected squared deviation (mean squared error) between X and its expectation: E((X – E(X))2) = E(X – μ)2), and the symbol for the population value is σ2. Some examples of variances (remember we are talking conceptually here): – the variance of the mean, is the expected squared deviation between a sample mean and its expectation the population mean. – the variance of the difference between two means: the expected squared deviation between the sample difference and the population difference between two means. – the variance of a contrast: the expected squared deviation between the sample value of the contrast and the population value of the contrast. It’s really not that complicated, I believe. Note: in the calculation of t-tests (and the like), or in obtaining confidence intervals, we usually work with the square root of the variance: the root mean squared error (RMSE), also known as the standard deviation (mostly used when talking about individual scores) or standard error (when talking about estimating parameter values such as the population mean or the differences between population means). ### What are variance components? In order to appreciate what the concept of a variance component entails, imagine an experiment with nc treatment conditions in which np participants respond to ni items (or stimuli) in all conditions. This is called a fully-crossed experimental design. Now consider the variable Xcpi. a random score in condition t, of participant p responding to item i. The variance of this variable is σ2(Xcpi) = E((Xcpi – μ)2). But note that just as the single score is influenced by e.g. the actual treatment condition, the particular person or item, so too can this variance be decomposed into components reflecting the influence of these factors. Crucially, the total variance σ2(Xcpi) can be considered as the sum of independent variance components, each reflecting the influence of some factor or interaction of factors. The following figure represents the components of the total variance in the fully crossed design (as you can see the participants are now promoted to actual persons…) The symbols used in this figure represent the following. Θ2 is used to indicate that a component is considered to be a so-called fixed variance component (the details of which are beyond the scope of this post), and the symbol σ2 is used to indicate components associated with random effects. (The ANOVA model contains a mixture of fixed and random effects, that’s why we call such models mixed effects models or mixed model ANOVAs). Components with a single subscript represent variances associated with main effects, components with two subscripts two-way interactions, and the only component with three subscripts represents a three-way-interaction confounded with error. Let’s consider one of these variance components (you can also refer to them simply as variances) to see in more detail how they can be interpreted. Take σ2(p), the person-variance. Note that this is an alternative symbol for the variance, in the figure, the p is in the subscript in stead of between brackets (I am sorry for the inconvenience of switching symbols, but I do not want to rely too much on mathjax ($sigma^2_p = sigma^2(p)\$) and I do not want to change the symbols in the figure).

The variance σ2(p) is the expected squared deviation of the score of an idealized randomly selected person and the expectation of this score, the population mean. This score is the person score averaged of the conditions of the experiment and all of the items that could have been selected for the experiment. (This conceptualization is from Generalizability Theory; the Venn-diagram representation as well), the person score is also called the universe score of the person).

The component represents E((μp – μ)2), the expected squared person effect. Likewise, the variance associated with items σ2(i) is the expected squared item effect, and σ2(cp), is the expected squared interaction effect of condition and person.

The figure indicates that the total variance is (modeled as) the sum of seven independent variance components. The Precision app asks you to supply the values for six of these components (the components associated with the random effects), and now I hope it is a little clearer why these components are also referred to as expected squared effects.

### Relative error variance of a treatment mean

The basic goal of contrast analysis is to compare a mean (or more) relative to one (or more) other treatment means. That is, we are interested in the relative position of a mean compared to the rest.  Due to sampling error our estimate of the relative position of a mean differs from the ‘true’ relative position. The relative error variance of a treatment mean is the expected squared deviation between the obtained relative position and the expected relative position.
Let’s consider the Venn-diagram above again. In particular, take a look at the condition-circle and the components contained in it. A total of four variance components are included in the circle. The component  Θ2(c), is the component associated with the treatment effect (μc – μ).  All the other components contained in the circle contribute to the relative error variance. Thus, the interaction of treatment and participant, the interaction of treatment and stimulus, and the error contribute to the deviation between the true effect (relative position) and the estimated effect. Or, in other words, the relative error variance of the treatment mean consists of the three variance components associated with the treatment by participant interaction, the treatment by stimulus interaction, and error.

But these components specify the variance in terms of individual measurements, whereas the treatment mean is obtained on the basis of averaging over the np*ni measurements we have in the corresponding treatment condition. So let’s see how we can take into account the number of measurements.

Unfortunately, things get a little complicated to explain, but I’ll have a go nonetheless.  The explanation takes two steps: 1) We consider how to specify expected mean squares in terms of the components contained in the condition-circle 2) We’ll see how to get from the formulation of the expected mean square to the formulation of the relative error variance of a treatment mean.

#### Obtaining an expected mean square

I will use the term Mean Square (MS) to refer to a variance estimate. For instance, MST is an estimate of the variance associated with the treatment condition. The expected MS (EMS) is the average value of these estimates.

We can use the Venn-diagram to obtain an EMS for the treatment factor and all the other factors in the design, but we will focus on the EMS associated with treatment. However, we cannot use the variance components directly, because the mixed ANOVA model I have been using for the application contains sum-to-zero restrictions on the treatment effects and the two-way interaction-effects of treatment and participant and treatment and stimulus (item).  The consequence of this is that we will have to multiply the variance components associated with the treatment-by-participant and treatment-by-stimulus with a constant equal to nc / (nc – 1), where nc is the number of conditions.(This is the hard part to explain, but I didn’t really explain it, but simply stated it).

The second step of obtaining the EMS is to multiply the components with the number of participants and items, as follows. Multiply the component by the sample size if and only if the subscript of the component does not contain a reference to the particular sample size. That is, for instance, multiply a component by the number of participants np, if and only if the subscript of the component does not contain a subscript associated with participants.

E(MST) = npniΘ2(T) + ni(nc / (nc – 1))σ2(cp) + np(nc / (nc – 1))σ2(ci) + σ2(cpi, e).

#### Obtaining the relative error variance of the treatment mean

Notice that  ni(nc / (nc – 1))σ2(cp) + np(nc / (nc – 1))σ2(ci) + σ2(cpi, e) contains the components associated with the relative error variance. Because the treatment mean is based on np*ni scores, to obtain the relative error variance for the treatment mean, we divide by np*ni to obtain.

Relative error variance of the treatment mean = (nc / (nc – 1))σ2(cp) / np + (nc / (nc – 1))σ2(ci) / ni+ σ2(cpi, e) /  (npni).

As an aside, in the post describing the app, I have used the symbols σ2(αβ) to refer to nc / (nc – 1))σ2(cp), and σ2(αγ) to refer to (nc / (nc – 1))σ2(ci).

### Comparing means: the error variance of a contrast

From the relative error variance of a treatment mean, we can get to the variance of a contrast, simply by multiplying the relative error variance by the sum of the squared contrast weights. For instance, if we want to compare two  treatment means we can do so by estimating the contrast ψ = 1*μ1 + (-1)*μ2, where the values 1 and (-1) are the contrast weights. The sum of the squared contrast weights equals 2, the error variance of the contrast is therefore 2*(nc / (nc – 1))σ2(cp) / np + (nc / (nc – 1))σ2(ci) / ni+ σ2(cpi, e) /  (npni).

Note that the latter gives us the expected squared deviation between the estimated contrast value and the true contrast value (see also the explanation of the concept of variance above).

It should be noted that for the calculation of a 95% confidence interval for the contrast estimate (or for the Margin of Error; the half-width of the confidence interval) we make use of the square root of the error variance of the contrast. This square root is the standard error of the contrast estimate. The calculation of MOE also requires a value for the degrees of freedom. I will write about forming a confidence interval for a contrast estimate in one of the next posts.

### Planning for Precision: simulation results for four designs with four conditions

This is the third post about the Planning for Precision app (in the future I’ll explain the difference between Planning for Precision and Precision for Planning). Some background information about the application can be found here: http://the-small-s-scientist.blogspot.com/2017/04/planning-for-precision.html.

In this post, I want to present the simulation results for 4 designs with 4 conditions. The designs are: the counter balanced design (see previous post), the fully-crossed design, the stimulus-within-condition design, and the stimulus-and-participant-within-condition design (the both-within-condition design). I have not included the participants-within-condition design, because this is simply the mirror-image (so to say) of the stimulus-within-condition design.

In one of my next posts, I will describe some more background information about planning for precision, but some of the basics are as follows. We have a design with 4 treatment conditions, and what we want do is to estimate differences between these condition means by using contrasts. For instance, we may be interested in the (amount of) difference between the first mean, maybe because it is a control-condition with the average of the other three conditions: μ1 – (μ2 + μ3 + μ4)/3 =  1*μ1 – 1/3*μ2 -1/3*μ3 – 1/3*μ4.  The values {1, -1/3, -1/3, -1/3} are the contrast weights, and for the result we use the term ψ.

The value of ψ is estimated on the basis of estimates of the population means, that is, the sample means or condition means. Due to sampling error, the contrast estimate varies from sample to sample and the amount of sampling error can be expressed by means of a confidence interval. Conceptually, the confidence interval expresses the precision of the estimate: the wider the confidence interval, the less precise the estimate is.

The Margin of Error (MOE) of an estimate is the half-width of the confidence interval, so the confidence interval is the estimate plus or minus MOE. We will take MOE as an expression of the precision of the estimate (the less the value of MOE the more precise the estimate).  Now, if you want to estimate an effect size, more precision (lower value of MOE; less wide confidence interval) is better than less precision (higher value of MOE; wider confidence interval).  The app let’s you specify the design and the contrast weights and helps you find the minimum required sample sizes (for participants and stimuli) for a given target MOE. (You can also play with the designs to see which design gives you smallest expected MOE).

Crucially, if you plan for precision, you also want to have some assurance that the MOE you are likely to obtain in you actual experiment will not be larger than you target MOE. Compare this with power: 80% power means that the probability that you will reject the null-hypothesis is 80%. Likewise, assurance MOE of 80% means that there is an 80% probability that your obtained MOE will be no larger than assurance MOE.

The simulations (with N = 10000 replications) estimate Expected MOE as well as Assurance MOE for assurances of .80, .90, .95, and .99, for 4 designs with 4 treatment conditions, with a total number of 48 participants and 24 stimuli (items).  The MOEs are given for three standard constrasts: 1) the difference between the first mean and the mean of the other three, with weights {1, -1/3, -1/3, -1/3}; 2) the difference between the second mean and the mean of conditions three and four, with weights {0, 1, -1/2, -1/2}; 3) the difference between the third and fourth condition means, with weights {0, 0, 1, -1}.

I will present the results in  separate tables for the 4 designs considered and include percentage difference between expected values of assurance MOE and the estimated values estimated values.

### The fully crossed design

The results are in the following table.

The percentage difference between the expected quantiles (= assurance MOEs for given insurance;  i.e. q.80 is expected or estimated  80% Assurance MOE) and the estimated quantiles are: .80: 0.11%; .90: 0.05%; .95: -0.14%; 99: -0.05%.

### The counter balanced design

The results are presented in the following table.

The percentage difference between the expected quantiles and the estimated quantiles are: .80: 0.03%; .90: 0.13%;  .95: 0.09%, .99: -0.23%.

### The stimulus-within-condition design

The following table contains the details.
The percentage difference between the expected quantiles and the estimated quantiles are: .80: -0.11%; .90: -0.33%;  .95: -0.55%, .99: -0.70%.

### Both-participant-and-stimulus-within-condition design

Here is the table.
And the percentage differences are: .80: -0.34%; .90: -0.59%;  .95: -0.82%;  .99: -1.06%.

### Conclusion

The results show that the simulation results are quite consistent with the expected values based on mixed model ANOVA. We can see that the differences between expected and estimated values increase the less the number of participants and items per condition. For instance, in the both within condition design 12 participants respond to 6 stimuli in one of the four treatment conditions. The fact that even with these small samples sizes the results seem to agree to an acceptable degree is (to my mind) encouraging. Note that with small samples the expected assurance MOES are slightly lower than the estimates, but the largest difference is -1.06% (see the MOE for 99% assurance).

### Planning for Precision: first simulation results

In this post, I want to share the results of the first simulation study to “test” my Planning for Precision app. More details about the app can be found in a previous post: here.

I have included the basic logic of the simulations (including R code) in a document that you can download: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4k88F8PMfAhSlNteldYRWFrQTg.

The simulation study simulates responses from a four condition counter balanced design, with p = 48 participants and q = 24 stimuli/items. Here, we will focus on expected and assurance MOE for three contrasts. The first contrast estimates the difference between the first mean and the average of the other three, the second contrast the difference between the second mean and the average of the third and fourth means, and the final contrast the difference between the means of the third and fourth contrasts.

Expected MOE is compared to the mean of the estimated MOE for each of the contrasts (based on 10000 replications). Assurance MOE is judged for assurance of .80, .90, .95 and .99, by comparing the calculations in the app with the corresponding quantile estimates of the simulated distributions.

### Results

Note that in the above table, the Expected Mean MOE is what I have called Expected MOE, and the q.80 through q.99 are quantiles of the distribution of MOE. As an example, q.80 is the quantile corresponding to assurance MOE with 80% assurance, Expected q.80 is the value of assurance MOE calculated with the theoretical approach, and Estimated q.80 is the estimated quantile based on the simulation studies.
Importantly, we can see that most of the figures agree to a satisfying degree. If we look at the relative differences, expressed in percentages for the assurance MOEs, we get 0.0325% for q.80,  0.1260% for q.90, 0.0933% for q.95, and  -0.2324% for q.99.

### Conclusion

The first simulation results seem promising. But I still have a lot of work to do for the rest of the designs.

### Planning for precision with samples of participants and items

Many experiments involve the (quasi-)random selection of both participants and items. Westfall et al. (2014) provide a Shiny-app for power-calculations for five different experimental designs with selections of participants and items. Here I want to present my own Shiny-app for planning for precision of contrast estimates (for the comparison of up to four groups) in these experimental designs.  The app can be found here: https://gmulder.shinyapps.io/precision/

(Note: I have taken the code of Westfall’s app and added code or modified existing code to get precision estimates in stead of power; so, without Westfall’s app, my own modified version would never have existed).

The plan for this post is as follows. I will present the general theoretical background (mixed model ANOVA combined with ideas from Generalizability Theory) by considering comparing three groups in a counter balanced design.
Note 1: This post uses mathjax, so it’s probably unreadable on mobile devices. Note: a (tidied up) version (pdf) of this post can be downloaded here: download the pdf
Note 2: For simulation studies testing the procedure go here: https://the-small-s-scientist.blogspot.nl/2017/05/planning-for-precision-simulation.html
Note 3: I use the terms stimulus and item interchangeably; have to correct this to make things more readable and comparable to Westfall et al. (2014).
Note 4: If you do not like the technical details you can skip to an illustration of the app at the end of the post.

## The general idea

The focus of planning for precision is to try to minimize the half-width of a 95%-confidence interval for a comparison of means (in our case). Following Cumming’s (2012) terminology I will call this half-width the Margin of Error (MOE). The actual purpose of the app is to find required sample sizes for participants and items that have a high probability (‘assurance’) of obtaining a MOE of some pre-specified value.

## Expected MOE for a contrast

For a contrast estimate   we have the following expression for the expected MOE.

where is the standard error of the contrast estimate. Of course, both the standard error and the df are functions of the sample sizes.

For the standard error of a contrast with contrast weights through , where a is the number of treatment conditions,  we use the following general expression.

where n is the per treatment sample size (i.e. the number of participants per treatment condition times the number of items per treatment condition) and the within treatment variance (we assume homogeneity of variance).

For a simple example take an independent samples design with n = 20 participants responding to 1 item in one of two possible treatment conditions (this is basically the set up for the independent t-test). Suppose we have contrast weights and , and , the standard error for this contrast equals .  (Note that this is simply the standard error of the difference between two means as used in the independent samples t-test).

In this simple example, df is the total sample size (N = n*a) minus the number of treatment conditions (a), thus . The expected MOE for this design is therefore, . Note that using these figures entails that 95% of the contrast estimates will take values between the true contrast value plus and minus the expected MOE: .

For the three groups case, and contrast weights {}, the same sample sizes and within treatment variance gives .

(If you like, I’ve written a little document with derivation of the variance of selected contrast estimates in the fully crossed design for the comparison of two and three group means. That document can be found here: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B4k88F8PMfAhaEw2blBveE96VlU)

The focus of planning for precision is to try to find sample sizes that minimize expected MOE to a certain target MOE.  The app uses an optimization function that minimizes the squared difference between expected MOE and target MOE to find the optimal (minimal) sample sizes required.

### Planning with assurance

If the expected MOE is equal to target MOE,  the sample estimate of MOE will be larger than your target MOE in 50% of replication experiments. This is why we plan with assurance (terminology from Cumming, 2012).  For instance, we may want to have a 95% probability (95% assurance) that the estimated MOE will not exceed our target MOE.

In order to plan with assurance, we need (an approximation of) the sampling distribution of MOE. In the ANOVA approach that underlies the app, this boils down to the distribution of estimates of

thus

In terms of the two-groups independent samples design above: the expected MOE equals 2.8629. But, with df = 38, there is an 80% probability (assurance) that the estimated MOE will be no larger than:

Note that the 45.07628 is the quantile in the chi-squared (df = 38) distribution. That is .

The app let’s  you specify a target MOE and a value for the desired assurance () and will find the combination of number of participants and items that will give an estimated MOE no larger than target MOE in % of the replication experiments.

## The mixed model ANOVA approach

Basically, what we need to plan for precision is to able to specify and the degrees of freedom. We will specify as a function of variance components and use the Satterthwaite procedure to approximate the degrees of freedom by means of a linear combination of expected mean squares. I will illustrate the approach with a three-treatment conditions counterbalanced design.

### A description of the design

Suppose we are interested in estimating the differences between three group means. We formulate two contrasts: one contrast estimates the mean difference between the first group and the average of the means of the second and third groups. The weights of the contrasts are respectively {1, -1/2, -1/2}, and {0, 1, -1}.

We are planning to use a counterbalanced design with a number of participants equal to p and a sample of items of size q. In the design we randomly assign participants to a groups, where a is the number of conditions, and randomly assign items to a lists (see Westfall et al., 2014 for more details about this design). All the groups are exposed to all lists of stimuli, but the groups are exposed to different lists in each condition. The number of group by list combinations equals , and the number of observations in each group by list combination equals . The condition means are estimated by combining a group by list combinations each of which composed of different participants and stimuli. The total number of observations per condition is therefore, .

### The ANOVA model

The ANOVA model for this design is

where the effect is a constant treatment effect (it’s a fixed effect), and the other effect are random effects with zero mean and variances (participants), (items), (person by treatment interaction), (item by treatment interaction) and (error variance confounded with the person by item interaction). Note: in Table 1 below, is (for technical reasons not important for this blogpost) presented as this confounding .

We make use of the following restrictions (Sahai & Ageel, 2000): , and . The latter two restrictions make the interaction-effects correlated across conditions (i,e. the effects of person and treatment are correlated across condition for the same person, likewise the interaction effects of item and treatment are correlated across conditons for the same item. Interaction effects of different participants and items are uncorrelated). The covariances between the random effects are assumed to be zero.

Under this model (and restrictions) , and . Furthermore, the covariance of the interactions between treatment and participant or between treatment and item for the same participant or item are for participants and for items.

### Within treatment variance

In order to obtain an expectation for MOE, we take the expected mean squares to get an expression or the expected within treatment variance . These expected means squares are presented in Table 1.

The expected within treatment variance can be found in the Treatment row in Table 1. It is comprised of all the components to the right of the component associated with the treatment effect (). Thus, . Note that the latter equals the sum of the expected mean squares of the Treatment by Participant () and the Treatment by Item () interactions, minus the expected mean square associated with Error ().

### Degrees of freedom

The second ingredient we need in order to obtain expected MOE are the degrees of freedom that are used to estimate the within treatment variance. In the ANOVA approach the within treatment variance is estimated by a linear combination of mean squares (as described in the last sentence of the previous section. This linear combination is also used to obtain approximate degrees of freedom using the Satterthwaite procedure:

1.

### Expected MOE

(Note: I can’t seem to get mathjax to generate align environments or equation arrays, so the following is ugly; Note to self: next time use R-studio or Lyx to generate R-html or an equivalent format).

The expected value of MOE for the contrasts in the counter balanced design is:

### Finally an example

Suppose we the scores in three conditions are normally distributed with (total) variances . Suppose furthermore, that 10% of the variance can be attributed to treatment by participant interaction, 10% of the variance to the treatment by item interaction and 40% of the variance to the error confounded with the participant by item interaction. (which leaves 40% of the total variance attributable to participant and item variance.

Thus, we have , , and . Our target MOE is .25, and we plan to use the counterbalanced design with p = 30 participants, and q = 15 items (stimuli).

Due to the model restrictions presented above we have , , and .

The value of is therefore, , and the approximate df equal .

For the first contrast, with weights {1, -1/2. -1/2}, then, the Expected value for the Margin of Error is .

For the second contrast, with weights {0, 1, -1}, the Expected value of the Margin of Error is

Thus, using p = 30 participants, and q = 15 items (stimuli) will not lead to an expected MOE larger than the target MOE of .25.

We can use the app to find the required number of participants and items for a given target MOE. If the number of groups is larger than two, the app uses the contrast estimate with the largest expected MOE to calculate the sample sizes (in the default setting the one comparing only two group means). The reasoning is that if the least precise estimate (in terms of MOE) meets our target precision, the other ones meet our target precision as well.

## Using the app

I’ve included lot’ of comments in the app itself, but please ignore references to a manual (does not exist, yet, except in Dutch) or an article (no idea whether or not I’ll be able to finish the write-up anytime soon). I hope the app is pretty straightforward. Just take a look at  https://gmulder.shinyapps.io/precision/, but the basic idea is:
– Choose one of five designs
– Supply the number of treatment conditions
– Specify contrast(weights) (or use the default ones)
– Supply target MOE and assurance
– Supply values of variance components (read (e,g,) Westfall, et al, 2014, for more details).
– Supply a number of participants and items
– Choose run precision analysis with current values or
– Choose get sample sizes. (The app gives two solutions: one minimizes the number of participants and the other minimizes the number of stimuli/items). NOTE: the number of stimuli is always greater than or equal to 10 and the number of participants is always greater than or equal to 20.

### An illustration

Take the example above. Out target MOE equals .25, and we want insurance of .80 to get an estimated MOE of no larger than .25. We use a counter-balanced design with three conditions, and want to estimate two contrasts: one comparing the first mean with the average of means two and three, and the other contrast compares the second mean with the third mean. We can use the default contrasts.
For the variance components, we use the default values provided by Westfall et al. (2014) for the variance components. These are also the default values in the app (so we don’t need to change anything now).
Let’s see what happens when we propose to use p = 30 participants and q = 15 items/stimuli.
Here is part of a screenshot from the app:
These results show that the expected MOE for the first contrast (comparing the first mean with the average of the other means) equals 0.3290, and assurance MOE for the same contrasts equals 0.3576. Remember that we specified the assurance as .80. So, this means that 80% of the replication experiments give estimated MOE as large as or smaller than 0.3576. But we want that to be at most 0.2500.  Thus, 30 participants and 15 items do suffice for our purposes.
Let’s use to app to get sample sizes. The results are as follows.

The app promises that using 25 stimuli combined with 290 participants or 25 participants and 290 items will do the trick (the symmetry of these results are due to the fact that the interaction components are equal; both the treatment by participant and the treatment by stimulus interaction component equal .10).  Since we have 3 treatment conditions using 290 participants or stimuli is a little awkward, so I suggest to use 291 (equals 97 participants per group or 97 items per list). (300 is a much nicer figure of course). Likewise, as it is hard to equally divide 25 stimuli or participants over three lists or groups, use a multiple of three (say: 27).

If we input the suggest sample sizes in the app, we see the following results if we choose the run precision analysis  with current values.

As you can see: Assurance MOE is close to 0.25 (.24) for the second contrast (the least precise one), so 80% of replication experiments will get estimated MOE of 0.25 (.24) or smaller. The expected precision is 0.22. The first contrast (which can be estimated with more precision) has assurance MOE of 0.21 and expected MOE of approximately 0.19.  Thus, the sample sizes lead to the results we want.

### References

Cumming, G. (2012). Understanding the New Statistics. New York/London: Routledge.

Sahai, H., & Ageel, M. I. (2000). The analysis of variance. Fixed, Random, and Mixed Models. Boston/Basel/Berlin: Birkhäuser.

Westfall, J., Kenny, D. A., & Judd, C. M. (2014). Statistical power and optimal design in experiments in which samples of participants respond to samples of stimuli. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 143(5), 2020-2045.

### What is NHST, anyway?

I am not a fan of NHST (Null Hypothesis Significance Testing). Or maybe I should say, I am no longer a fan. I used to believe that rejecting null-hypotheses of zero differences based on the  p-value was the proper way of gathering evidence for my substantive hypotheses. And the evidential nature of the p-value seemed so obvious to me, that I frequently got angry when encountering what I believed were incorrect p-values, reasoning that if the p-value is incorrect, so must be the evidence in support of the substantive hypothesis.
For this reason, I refused to use the significance tests that were most frequently used in my field, i.e. performing a by-subjects analysis and a by-item analysis and concluding the existence of an effect if both are significant,  because the by-subjects analyses in particular regularly leads to p-values that are too low, which leads to believing you have evidence while you really don’t.  And so I spent a huge amount of time, coming from almost no statistical background – I followed no more than a few introductory statistics courses – , mastering mixed model ANOVA and hierarchical linear modelling (up to a reasonable degree; i.e. being able to get p-values for several experimental designs).  Because these techniques, so I believed, gave me correct p-values. At the moment, this all seems rather silly to me.
I still have some NHST unlearning to do. For example, I frequently catch myself looking at a 95% confidence interval to see whether zero is inside or outside the interval, and actually feeling happy when zero lies outside it (this happens when the result is statistically significant). Apparently, traces of NHST are strongly embedded in my thinking. I still have to tell myself not to be silly, so to say.
One reason for writing this blog is to sharpen my thinking about NHST and trying to figure out new and comprehensible ways of explaining to students and researchers why they should be vary careful in considering NHST as the sine qua non of research. Of course,  if you really want to make your reasoning clear, one of the first things you should do is define the concepts you’re reasoning about. The purpose of this post is therefore to make clear what my “definition” of NHST is.
My view of NHST  is very much based on how Gigerenzer et al. (1989) describe it:
“Fisher’s theory of significance testing, which was historically first, was merged with concepts from the Neyman-Pearson theory and taught as “statistics” per se. We call this compromise the “hybrid theory” of statistical inference, and it goes without saying the neither Fisher nor Neyman and Pearson would have looked with favor on this offspring of their forced marriage.” (p. 123, italics in original).
Actually, Fisher’s significance testing and Neyman-Pearson’s hypothesis testing are fundamentally incompatible (I will come back to this later), but almost no texts explaining statistics to psychologists “presented Neyman and Pearson’s theory as an alternative to Fisher’s, still less as a competing theory. The great mass of texts tried to fuse the controversial ideas into some hybrid statistical theory, as described in section 3.4. Of course, this meant doing the impossible.” (p. 219, italics in original).
So, NHST is an impossible, as in logically incoherent, “statistical theory”, because it (con)fuses concepts from incompatible statistical theories. If this is true, which I think it is, doing science with a small s, which involves logical thinking, disqualifies NHST as a main means of statistical inference. But let me write a little bit more about Fisher’s ideas and those of Neyman and Pearson, to explain the illogic of NHST.

I will try to describe the main characteristics of  the two approaches that got hybridized in NHST at a conceptual level. I will have to simplify a lot and I hope these simplifications do little harm. Let’s start with Fisher’s significance testing.

### Fisher’s significance testing

The main purpose of Fisher’s significance testing is gathering evidence about parameters in a statistical model on the basis of a sample of data. So, the nature of the approach is evidential. Crucially, the evidence the data provides can only be evidence against a statistical model, but it can not be evidence in favour of the model, much in line with Popper’s idea  of progress in science by means of falsification. The statistical model to be nullified, i.e. the model one tries to obtain evidence against, is called the null-hypothesis.

Conceptually, the statistical model is a descriptive model of a population of possible values. An important part of Fisher’s approach is therefore to judge what kind of model provides an appropriate model of the population. For instance, this process of formulating the model (which, of course, involves a lot of thought and judgement) may lead one to assume that the random variable has a normal distribution, which is characterized by only two parameters, μ the expected value or mean of the distribution and σ, the square root of the variance of the distribution, which in the case of the normal distribution is it’s standard deviation (the standard deviation is the square root of the variance).

The values of μ and σ (or σ2) are generally unknown, but we may assume (again as a result of thinking and judging) that they have particular values. For reasons of exposition, I will now assume that the value of σ is known, say σ = 15, so that we only have to take the unknown value of μ into account. Let’s suppose that our thinking and judging has led us to assume that the unknown value of μ = 100.  The null-hypothesis is therefore that the variable has a normal distribution with μ = 100, and σ = 15.

We can obtain evidence against this null-hypothesis, by determining a p-value. We first gather data, say we take a random sample of N = 225 participants, which enables us to obtain observed values of the variable. Next, we calculate a test statistic, for example by estimating the value of  μ (on the basis of our data) subtracting the hypothesized value and dividing the estimate by it’s standard error. Our estimated value may for example be 103, and the standard error equals 15 / √225 = 1.0, so the value of the test statistic equals (103 – 100) / 1 = 3. And now we are ready to calculate the p-value.

The p-value is the probability of obtaining (when sampling repeatedly) a value of the test statistic as large as or larger than the one obtained in the study, provided that the null-hypothesis is true. This probability can be calculated because the exact distribution of the test statistic can be deduced from the specification of the null-hypothesis. In our example, the test statistic is approximately normally distributed with μ = 0, and σ = 1.0. (The distribution is approximately normal, assuming the null-hypothesis is true, so the p-value in our example not exact). The p-value equals 0.003. (This is the so-called two-sided p-value, it is the probability of obtaining a value equal or larger than 3 or equal of smaller than -3, but we will ignore the technicalities of two-sided tests).

The p-value tells us that if the null-hypothesis is true, and we repeatedly take random samples from the population (as described by the null-hypothesis) we will find a value of our test statistic or a larger value in 0.3% of these samples. Thus, the probability of obtaining a value equal to or larger than 3.0 is very small.

Following Fisher, this low p-value can be interpreted as that something “improbable” occurred (assuming the null-hypothesis is true) or as inductive evidence against the null-hypothesis, i.e. the null-hypothesis is not true.

In his early writings Fisher proposed a p-value smaller than .05 as inductive evidence against the null-hypothesis (keeping in mind the possibility that the null is true, but that something improbable happened), but later he thought using the fixed criterion of .05 to be non-scientific.  If the p-value is smaller than the criterion (say .05), the result is statistically significant.
In sum, the approach by Fisher, significance testing, involves specifying a statistical model, and using the p-value to test the assumptions of the model, such as specific values for μ or σ. If the p-value is smaller than the criterion value, either something improbable occurred or the null-hypothesis is not true. Crucially, the p-value may provide inductive evidence against the assumptions of the null-hypothesis, but a large p-value (larger than the criterion value) is not inductive support for the null-hypothesis.

### Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing

In contrast to Fisher’s evidential approach, Neyman and Pearson’s hypothesis testing is non-evidential.  Its primary goal is to choose on the basis of repeated random sampling between two hypotheses (or more; but I will only consider two)  in order to make behavioral decisions (so to speak) that will minimize decision errors and their associated costs (loss) in the long run. In stead of trying to figure out which of the two hypotheses is true, one decides to accept  one (and reject the other) of the two hypothesis as if it were true, without actually having to believe it, and act accordingly.
As with Fisher, Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing starts with formulating descriptive models of the population. We may for instance propose (after thinking and judging) that one model (hypothesis H1) assumes that the variable has a normal distribution with μ = 100 and one model (hypothesis H2) that assumes that the variable has a normal distribution with μ = 106.  We will assume the value of σ is known, say it equals 15.  We will have to choose one of the two hypothesis, by rejecting one (and accepting the other).

Let’s suppose that only one of the models is true and that they cannot both be false. This means that we can incorrectly decide to reject or accept each of the two hypotheses.  That is, if we incorrectly reject H1, we incorrectly accept H2. So, there are two types of errors we can make. A type I error occurs when we incorrectly reject a true hypothesis and a type II error occurs when we incorrectly accept a false hypothesis.

In a previous post (here), I used the following conceptual descriptions of these errors: the type I error is the error of excessive skepticism, and the type II error is the error of  extreme gullibility, but from the perspective of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing these conceptual descriptions may not make much sense, because these terms imply a relation between the decisions about a hypothesis and belief in the hypothesis, while in the Neyman-Pearson approach a rejection or non-rejection does not lead to commitment in believing or not believing the hypothesis, although the hypotheses themselves are based on beliefs (and judging and reasoning) that the descriptive model is suitable for the population at hand.
The crucial point is that the goal of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing is to base courses of action on the decision to reject or not-reject a statistical hypothesis. This entails minimizing the costs (loss) associated with type I and type II errors. In particular, the approach minimizes the probability (β) of a type II error bounded by the probability (α) of a type I error. We may also say that we want to maximize the probability (1 – β), the probability of rejecting a false hypothesis, the so called power of the test, while keeping α at a maximum (usually low) value.
Suppose, that our considerations of the loss associated with type I and type II errors, has led us to the insight that false rejection of  H2 is the most costly error. And suppose that we have agreed/determined/reasoned/judged that the probability of falsely rejecting it should be at most .05. So, α = .05. Of course, we also  “know” the loss associated with falsely accepting it, and we have determined that the probability β should not exceed .10. Now, suppose that we repeatedly sample N = 225 observations from the (unknown) population. We do not know whether H1 or H2 provides the correct description of the population, but we assume that one of them must be true if we select a particular sample, and they cannot both be false.

We will reject H2 (Normal distribution with μ = 106, and σ = 15) if the sample mean in our random sample equals 104.35 or less (this corresponds to a test statistic with value -1.65).  Why, because the probability of obtaining a sample mean equal or smaller than 104.35 is approximately .05 when H2 is true. Thus, if we repeatedly sample from the population when H2 is true, we will incorrectly reject it in 5% of the cases. Which is the probability of a type I error that we want.

We have arranged things so, that when H2 is false, H1 is per definition true. If H1 is true (H2 is false), there is a probability of approximately .99 to obtain a sample mean of 104.35 or smaller. Thus, the probability to reject H2 when it it false is .99, this is the power of the test, and the probability is approximately .01 of incorrectly not rejecting H2 when it is false. The latter probability is the probability of a type II error, which we did not want to be larger than .10.

Now suppose the results is that the sample mean equals 103 (the value of the test statistic equals -3). According to the decision criterion we reject H2 (with α = .05) and accept H1 and act as if μ = 100 is true. Crucially, we do not have to believe it is actually true, nor do we consider the test statistic with value -3 as inductive evidence against H2. So, the test result provides neither support for H1 nor evidence against H2, but we know from the specification of the models and the assumptions about sampling that repeatedly using this procedure leads to 5% type I errors and 1%  type II errors in the long run, depending on which of the two hypotheses is true (which is unknown to us).  Given that we know the loss associated with each error, we are able to minimize the expected loss associated with acting upon the decisions we make about the hypotheses.

Note that Fisher’s significance testing would consider the p-value associated with the test statistic of -3, i.e. p < .01 either as inductive evidence against H2 or as an indication that something unusual (improbable) happened assuming H2 is true. Note also that in Fisher’s approach, it is not possible to reason from the inferred untruth of H2 to the truth of H1, because H1 does not exist in that approach.

It should be noted further that in the Neyman-Pearson approach, the importance of the value of the test statistic is restricted to whether or not the value exceeds a critical value (i.e. whether or not the value of the statistic is in the rejection region). That means that it is of no concern how much the test statistic exceeds the critical value, since all values larger than the critical value lead to the same decision: reject the hypothesis. In other words, because the approach is non-evidential, the magnitude of the test statistic is inconsequential as far as the truth of the hypothesis is concerned. Compare this to the Fisher approach, where the larger the test statistic is (the smaller the p-value), the stronger the inductive evidence is against the null-hypothesis.

### Null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST)

NHST combines Fisher’s significance testing with Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing, without regard for the logical incompatibilities of the two approaches. Fisher’s p-value is used both as a measure of inductive evidence against the null-hypothesis, with smaller p-values considered to be stronger evidence against the null than larger p-values, and as a test statistic. In its latter use, the null-hypothesis is (usually) rejected if the p-value is smaller than .05.

Contrary to significance testing, NHST uses the p-value to decide between the null-hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis. But contrary to the Neyman-Pearson approach, α, the probability of a type I error is not based on judgement and careful consideration of loss-functions, but is mechanically set at .05 (or .01). And, contrary to the Neyman-Pearson approach, the probability of a type II error (β) is usually not considered.

One reason for the latter may be that specification of the null-hypothesis is also mechanized.  In the case of differences between means or testing correlations or regression coefficients, etc, the standard null-hypothesis is that the difference, the correlation or the coefficient equals 0. This is also called the nil-hypothesis. As the alternative excludes the null, the standard alternative hypothesis is that the parameter in question is not equal to zero, which makes it hard to say something about the type II error, because determining the probability of a type II error requires thinking about a minimal consequential effect size (consequential in terms of decisions and associated loss) that can serve as the alternative hypothesis.

Specifying a non-nil alternative hypothesis, i.e. that the parameter value is not equal to zero, implies that results arbitrarily close to nil, but not equal to nil, are as consequential as effect sizes that are far away from the null-value, both in acting upon the value as in not-acting upon it. Crucially, not specifying a minimal consequential effect size, rules out determining  β. So, even though NHST uses the concept of an alternative hypothesis (contrary to Fisher), the nil-hypothesis is such that the procedure of Neyman and Pearson can no longer work: it is impossible to strike a balance between loss associated with type I and type II errors, and so NHST is not a hypothesis testing procedure.

For these reasons I am very much inclined to characterize NHST as fixed-α significance testing. But using fixed-α in combination with an evidential interpretation of p-values leads to logical inconsistencies. (As always, I assume that being logically consistent is one of the characteristics of doing science, but maybe you disagree). Note, by the way, that I am talking about the p-value as measure of evidence against the nil-hypothesis, and not about the p-value as test statistic. (But remember that proper use of the p-value as test statistic requires being able to specify a non-nil alternative hypothesis).
One of the logical inconsistencies is that α and the p-value-as-evidence involve contradictory conceptualisations of probability.  In terms of p-values, α is simply the probability that the p-value is smaller than .05 (the usual criterion) assuming the nil-hypothesis is true. That probability follows deductively from the specification of the null-hypothesis (including, of course,  the statistical model underlying it). Note that α is completely independent of actually realized results: it an assertion about the p-value assuming repeated sampling from the null-population; α is about the test-procedure and not about actual data.
But the p-value-as-evidence against the null is not the result of deductive reasoning, but of inductive reasoning. The p-value is not a probability associated with the test-procedure. It is a random variable the value of which depends on the actual data, the null-value and the statistical model. Crucially, from a single realized result (a p-value) an inference is made about a probability distribution. But this is inconsistent with the frequency interpretation of probability that underlies the conceptualisation of α, because under this interpretation no probability statement can be made about realized single results (except that the probability is 100% that it happened) or about an unrealized single result (that probability is 0 if it does not happen or 1.0 if it happens).  To make the point: using p-value-as-evidence and (fixed)-α requires both believing that probability statements can be made on the basis of a single result and believing that that is impossible.  So, it boils down to believing that both A and not-A are true.
To me, logical inconsistencies like these disqualify NHST as a scientific means of statistical inference. I repeat that this is because I believe that doing science entails being logically consistent. Assuming or believing that A and not-A are both true, is not an example of logical consistency.